The Jasmine is Budding

Jasmine, the national flower of Tunisia, is derived from Persian meaning "gift from God." It is widely popular as a fragrance, a tea, and as a houseplant. When protesters in Tunisia were looking for a name for their cause, they decided upon the Jasmine Revolution. Like the scent of the flowers, the revolution is spreading.

Tunisia is that purple one at the top of Africa between Algeria and Libya. Contrary to normal wind patterns... the revolution spread to Egypt next (read the previous blog for more on that). As soon as people saw, through Twitter and Facebook, that normal Arabs were standing up for freedom, they knew it was possible everywhere. Jordan, which is east of Israel, watched their king immediately fire the whole cabinet and bring on new people to prevent the wide spread protests. The new Prime Minister of Jordan, Marouf al-Bakhit, has already started talking to opposition parties to try to implement major democratic reforms. Yemen's President has vowed not to run for reelection. There have been call for protests in Syria. Some people have been talking about possible uprisings in Morocco. Iraqis and Saudi Arabians are looking on to see how the events unfold. To put that into a sentence: every Arab nation in the Middle East is about to throw off the post-colonial chains of the West and become self-governing nations.

The Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt has vowed to not take advantage of the situation. Hamas, an extremist Islamic group in Palestine, told people not to go out in public to show solidarity with the Egyptians. Hizbullah in Lebanon has been fairly quiet about the whole ordeal. I mention this because it is incredibly significant. The fundamentalist religious groups that everyone fears will prevent democracy are stepping aside to help it grow. Certainly the Muslim Brotherhood would like to have a few seats in the new Egyptian Congress, but they don't expect a supermajority.

Israel needs to move very quickly and efficiently. If every major Arab nation becomes democratic they will be led by the popular will of the people instead of the Western-backed leaders. If Israel doesn't make peace with the Palestinians very soon their problems will be two-fold. First the new governments will move to impose sanctions on Israel until peace is accomplished. Some might even go so far as to try military options. If you look back at the map you'll notice a lot of Arab nations surround Israel. Sanctions would be devastating to their economy and the United States is already pulling back from Israel. If the entire Arab world, as a democratic whole, were to condemn Israel the US would be hard-pressed to back them as the US currently does. Second, all of the Arabs that live in Palestine will see the effects of uprisings around them and get a few ideas in their heads. The roughly 4 million Arabs that live in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank might decide it's time for them to join the Jasmine Revolution and protest against the 5.8 million Jews in Israel. Israel has been able to prevent the creation of a Palestinian state so far because every government around them was supported by the US. That seems to be about to change.

To be sure, it is going to take time for the new democratic governments of the Middle East to become fully functioning. They are going to need help and guidance and they probably aren't going to ask the United States for it. There are two governments in the Middle East who are thought of as democratic, Turkey and Iran. As discussed in the last post, Turkey is moving away from the Western circle. Iran is as far from the Western circle as it gets. So which government will these new ones follow? Both countries want to be leaders in the Middle East and both are poised to be so. Nobody, here or there, knows what is going to happen next.

I can only hope that the people who live there decide what will happen for themselves.