Sunday, September 14, 2008

Goldilocks is Ukranian?

Ever since the trouble in Georgia that I already wrote about a lot of commentators have said that Ukraine is next. While this seems cliche it is also rather accurate. I think that that is a bit too direct for the chessmaster [Putin] to put into play. He does not want another world war and he certainly doesn't want another Cold War. He is going to continue to use maneuvers that are sneaky and completely legal, well, legal enough to get by with anyway. What many Americans don't understand is that Putin doesn't have to think in terms of four years like our presidents do. He can be making plans five, ten, fifteen years down the road and they will be carried out. Also, he doesn't have to carry them out himself. Bush is a cowboy and wants to make sure that everyone knows what he is up to. Putin is a spy and wants to make sure that as few people as possible know what he's up to. Medvedev is not quite the lapdog that many assume him to be but he is still not the leader of his party or the prime minister or the man in charge. Poland is in far more danger than the Ukraine is right now because they just signed a deal to have our missile defense system installed. While Putin almost certainly won't pull the same military trick he pulled in Georgia (tricks like that only work once, ask Andrew Wiggin), he will use political and economic pressure to make Poland a very unhappy place. The problem with countries that stop practicing major diplomacy is that politicians eventually forget how to use it. Our politicians have, for the most part, forgotten how to dance the dance of international politics. I think this can be evidenced by the statement, "I know how to deal with Russia because I can see it from my house."

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