Defrosting the Kremlin

The linked article describes the relationship between Russia and NATO, the group designed to destroy the Soviet Union in the Cold War.  NATO is going through the process of picking their next leader and I think the article does a really good job of not only describing the dynamics of the group's members, but also naming some possible candidates for the top post.  Please do read the article, I don't intend to go any further into NATO politics right now.  With that said, let's talk about Russia!

The Cold War is over.  It's been over for 17 years.  Putin is a Cold War politician and he is very good at it.  I wrote a blog to that effect.  Fortunately for most of the world, Medvedev isn't Putin.  Putin is a very powerful man, but I think he is taking a temporary reprive from the headlines to allow the possibility of him getting back into the presidency.

Dmitri Medvedev has learned what India, Pakistan, Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria have also had to learn the hard way: terrorists don't have borders.  I don't intend to write two terrorism blogs in a row, but it does at least have to be mentioned as a base for foreign policy.  The new Russian president is hopeful that he and the new American president can open a new dialogue about an issue much closer to home in Russia, which shares a border with Afghanistan, than the United States, which felt the sting of terror seven and a half years ago.  Russia, and everyone that voted for Obama, is hoping that the United States makes a swift change incourse when it comes to unilateral military action.  While Russia doesn't really like NATO, it prefers a group acting to a rogue invasion.

Russia certainly needs to work on its relationship with the United States after that little incursion into Georgia.  We can certainly understand what it's like to be overextended diplomatically and militarily.  Russia was also trying to fight on two fronts.  There was the diplomatic bluster with NATO over the military incursion of Russia.  The Kremlin has also been trying, somewhat lacklusterly, to woo China.  The more times that power is divided, the more dangerous it is to start trouble.  If Russia can secure China as an ally, it would be more able to fend off NATO.  China has to be careful in this power play because they are finally cozying up to us after years of bad relations.

China and Russia have a very long history due to their shared border and communist ideology.  Even though both nations are under less strict regimes than they were during the Cold War, diplomatic ties are rarely lost because of time alone.  China wants to make peace with Russia just as badly as Russia does, because having to maintain a high defense budget due to aggressive neighbors is a waste of money.  Easier said than done.  China has its own allies to worry about and the chess game of international politics is a messy one.  China used to be able to justify the relationship because of weaponry and oil imports, but they are getting their oil from elsewhere and Russia's weapons were old.

The Georgian pickle did, however, succeed two things for Russia.  It showed NATO and the EU that Russia still has a little bite behind its bark and it showed some of the weaknesses of the military.  Necessary improvements are being made so that Russia's military is joining the 21st century.  If Medvedev is successful, their foreign relations will too.

Russia has even been fortunate enough to be given a chance not only to show off her naval prowess, but also her willingness to work with NATO and the EU.  Pirates!  The driving purpose behind America's navy is the source of Russia's diplomatic future.  If Russia fights the pirates with the United States, rather than fighting the United States, then everyone is happy, and it will be a very plesent spring after a long, Cold, winter.